High pressure over the past few days have provided excellent conditions with low humidity, highs in the 60’s, above all else dry conditions. However, a weak disturbance is on the way that will interrupt the pleasant weather for a short time.
The water vapor satellite this morning is showing two significant disturbances over the United States. The first disturbance is heading towards the Mid Atlantic coast. This disturbance is being sheared by the northwesterly flow from the Polar jet stream and as a result is weakening rapidly. However, the disturbance will still be strong enough to produce a few scattered showers throughout the northern Mid Atlantic this afternoon and evening.
High pressure will quickly become reestablished by tomorrow morning with dry conditions and near normal temperatures Thursday afternoon through Saturday.
The next disturbance is a developing storm that will have a significant impact on the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area. The Pacific disturbance will move through the Rockies and into the Mississippi Valley by this weekend. As the upper disturbance moves into the Plains and Mississippi Valley on Saturday, an upper low is expected to intensify. Meanwhile, a back door cold front, a lovely gift from the negative NAO pattern over the Atlantic, will drop south and west through the New York City metropolitan area on Saturday night with increasing clouds. Now, here is where this pattern gets interesting!
The back door cold front will stall over or just south of the Philadelphia metropolitan area on Sunday morning while impulses or mid level disturbances from the upper low will race along the stationary boundary, that will gradually transition into a warm front, which will produce waves of moderate to potentially heavy rain from Sunday through Monday. I don’t expect continuous rainfall with these disturbances, but overall Sunday and Monday will not be pleasant outdoors.
The upper low opens up on Monday night and slides towards the coast while a Polar disturbance dives south towards the New England coast, which give birth to a developing coastal low on Monday night into Tuesday with periods of moderate to heavy rain once again. Overall, not a pleasant start to next week.
For a detailed seven day forecast, go here!
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