High pressure continues to remain just to the west of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area, creating a light and dry northwesterly wind and clear skies. The down sloping component of the northwesterly wind off the Appalachian Mountains will support warm temperatures once again with most locations in the 50’s to possibly around 60 degrees away from the immediate coast. High pressure will slide over the northern Mid Atlantic tomorrow with clear skies and light and variable winds. Ironically, due to the light winds, the down sloping component to the winds will not be as effective and thus temperatures will be slightly cooler.
Trouble is brewing however over the Mississippi Valley. A strong disturbance, which has already produced severe weather over Oklahoma and Texas, will slowly move east towards the northern Mid Atlantic on Thursday.
I expect clouds to increase through the day on Thursday with rain develop towards the evening hours as a warm front approaches. The warm front will remain over the region on Friday, producing periods of light to moderate rainfall, especially along and ahead of the warm front.
As the surface low pressure system redevelops over Virginia on Friday evening through Saturday, the combination of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will lead to a strengthening easterly wind from the surface to 700 MB. This strong easterly fetch will produce periods of steady moderate to heavy rain over much of the northern Mid Atlantic, but especially along the immediate coast of New Jersey and much of Long Island. There will also be an increasing threat for coastal flooding due to the persistent easterly wind through Saturday afternoon.
The coastal low will move just to the east of the New Jersey coast on Saturday evening with periods of heavy rainfall, especially from the Delaware River Valley on through southern Connecticut and Long Island with up to 2 inches of rain possible on top of the rainfall that has already fallen from Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon. The upper low associated with the coastal low will capture the coastal low on Saturday night and cause the storm to become vertically stacked. This will lead to the low pressure system stalling over the New York City metropolitan area, but also lead to rapid weakening as well. Due to the low pressure system at the surface and at the upper levels, remaining over the region, the threat for scattered showers will continue through Sunday evening.
High pressure will slowly take hold on Monday with clearing skies through the day and temperatures near normal. High pressure will become completely established over the region by Monday night with tranquil and comfortable conditions by Tuesday.
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