High pressure has exited the New Jersey coast this morning as a warm front slowly moves north towards the Hudson Valley and Connecticut this afternoon.
The warm front is currently north of Philadelphia cutting through Monmouth County and is just south of Long Island. Clear skies and dry conditions are being observed throughout the region due to the strong lifting and convection over the Tennessee Valley and Southeast, which is essentially robbing the moisture advection associated with the warm front and creating an area of sinking air over the northern Mid Atlantic. Note the air of dry and red color on the water vapor satellite image to the left.
However, increasing clouds can be expected by this afternoon with showers entering the region late this evening and overnight. The strong Sub Tropical disturbance will drive towards New Jersey by tomorrow afternoon with periods of rain, heavy at times. The heaviest rain is expected over the Delaware River Valley through the Hudson Valley. A half inch to an inch of rain is expected along the coast and through much of Long Island into eastern Connecticut. Heavier rain, over an inch to as much as 3 inches of rain, is expected just to the west where mid and upper level dynamics will be the strongest.
The rain will exit by Tuesday morning with clearing skies by Tuesday afternoon. Flash flooding will be a significant threat for portions of northern New Jersey and the Hudson Valley considering the state of the rivers throughout the region this morning. Caution should be taken!
High pressure will return on Wednesday and Thursday with dry yet cooler conditions with highs generally in the 50’s and 60’s. It should be noted that these temperatures are generally within normal ranges.
Another area of low pressure will move through the northern Mid Atlantic on Friday with periods rain and possibly some snow mixing in at the highest elevations. Otherwise, a light to moderate rain is expected from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon.
High pressure will regain control with significantly colder conditions on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will struggle on Saturday with highs in the 40’s for most locations however by Sunday afternoon temperatures will rebound into the 50’s and 60’s once agin. Those with farming concerns should take heed on Saturday and Sunday morning as temperatures will be near to slightly below freezing on both mornings!
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